B | Near Lyman, Ukraine — At a secret hide-out deep in a forest near the eastern city of Lyman, Ukrainian forces were caught in the crosshairs of a new line of Russian attack. Our CBS News team huddled in the dugout with the troops, not far from the eastern front line, where Russia was putting them under intense pressure with a barrage of artillery in a bid to stretch Ukraine's resources. Moscow wants to force the Ukrainians to bolster their defenses in the area by pulling soldiers away from their counteroffensive in the south. "We've got a couple of weeks now of very huge combats," U.S.-trained Commander Simon Solatenko told us. He and his elite troops from the Bogun Brigade had been up all night, fending off another Russian assault. They're outmanned and outgunned. The Russian forces have almost 10 times more ammunition.
He's lost a friend in the battle, and he's exhausted. "We're holding our line," he told us with a deep sigh. "It is difficult. I can't say our morale is on the top, but we are holding our line and we are standing."The fighting was so close you could smell the gunpowder, Solatenko told us, but they managed yet again to send the Russian soldiers running back in the opposite direction.One thing that has made a difference further along the front line in the region are the U.S. supplied, and controversial, cluster munitions. The Biden administration agreed to send the weapons earlier this summer, as Ukraine's ammunition shortages threatened its counteroffensive.
Critics of that decision worry about a weapon that releases dozens of smaller "bomblets," which sometimes fail to explode — posing a deadly threat to civilians as they can linger on the ground long after a conflict ends. That risk has seen more than 120 countries ban the use of the weapons, but not Russia, Ukraine or the United States.
Commander Musikant of the Bogun Brigade's artillery unit told CBS News they give his forces a crucial advantage: In the absence of air power, cluster munitions enable Ukrainian troops to clear an area quickly, as they can strike a large section of ground using a single shell.We watched as he directed a strike from their control room. With Russian positions in the firing line, Musikant gave the order to unleash one cluster bomb. The gunner out in the field received the order and let it fly, and then he and his men hotfooted it out of there — firing a shell can reveal their position, and they too can become targets.Ukrainian forces fire a U.S.-supplied cluster munition at a Russian position near the front line outside the eastern city of Lyman, amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, August 31, 2023. CBS News The hit was successful.The moral dilemma of using a weapon banned by most countries is not up for debate on the battlefields of Ukraine. The men trying to fend off Russia's invasion believe the cluster bombs are crucial to helping them hold the line, at least for now.The Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to CBS News said the "dud rate" — the number of bomblets that fail to explode — on the American cluster munitions has been very low, claiming they've been almost 100% efficient.White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in July that Ukraine was putting the weapons to use "appropriately."Russia, too, has relied on the controversial bombs during its invasion, and U.S. officials say Moscow has used older versions, with higher dud rates.
C |
在开幕演讲环节，启明创投主管合伙人周志峰发表了题为“跨越技术浪潮：寻找AI时代的商业拐点”的演讲，围绕基础模型、具身智能、AI基础设施、AI应用等做出2026启明创投AI十大展望。
D | 这是启明创投连续第四年发布AI十大展望。
1、基础模型
展望一：未来12-24个月，顶尖模型将内化大部分“外挂”能力，包括任务规划、工具调用、多Agent协同及部分Harness工程能力等。
展望二：多模态模型将进一步向可交互世界建模演进，成为AI在物理世界获得环境感知、长期规划并大规模落地的关键技术路径。
2、具身智能
展望三：头部机器人公司的有效数据，将从2025年的“万小时级”，跃升到2027年的“百万小时级”，其中人类第一视角数据会占绝对主导。
E |
展望四：灵巧手将迎来加速发展，带有触觉感知的灵巧手会逐渐成熟并持续降本，与双指夹爪方案形成高低搭配，在复杂操作场景逐渐规模化渗透。
3、AI基础设施
展望五：AI算力需求重心转向推理，存储、先进制程和先进封装产能层层吃紧，未来两年AI基建将持续面临结构性紧缺，算力资产储备将升格为AI企业的核心战略。
F |
展望六：AI基础设施将进入系统级竞争阶段，竞争维度覆盖芯片、互联、散热、供电等关键环节，未来两年内有望涌现基于新架构的算力芯片及超节点大集群，以实现低成本、高效率的Token生产。
G |
展望七：安全可信将与产品效果、Token成本并列为影响企业AI大规模落地的三大关键变量，安全可信AI将从可选项升级为必选项。
4、AI应用
展望八：未来12-24个月，AI应用的商业模式将加速脱离互联网时代的Freemium逻辑，转向以结果和价值定价。衡量AI公司的核心指标，将从用户规模转向单位智能成本创造的商业价值。
H |
展望九：未来12-24个月，AI应用商业化将聚焦垂直场景与高付费用户，效率端（save time）将领先消费端（kill time）率先爆发；伴随Token成本持续下降与交互范式创新，现象级AI消费应用将逐步浮现。
展望十：未来12-24个月，AI-Native组织将从概念走向实证，一批企业将实现数倍于传统组织的人均产出。
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